China is on track to import an all-time high volume of American ethane this month, as the ongoing war in the Middle East chokes off traditional petrochemical supply routes and pushes Chinese producers toward the United States for a critical industrial gas.
Shipments of US ethane to China are expected to reach 800,000 tonnes in April, according to Chinese consultancy JLC, roughly 60 percent above the usual monthly average. The surge is driven by disruptions to naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas supplies from the Middle East following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Some Chinese petrochemical firms have been able to switch their operations to ethane-based feedstocks to compensate for the loss of Middle Eastern inputs.
Ethane, a natural gas liquid used primarily to produce ethylene — a building block for plastics — has become a lifeline for Chinese manufacturers grappling with one of the most severe supply shocks in recent memory. China depends almost entirely on the US for its ethane supply. The country accounted for 47 percent of all US ethane exports in 2024, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
A Broader Disruption to China's Chemical Supply Chain
The Iran war has exposed deep vulnerabilities in China's chemical feedstock imports. According to analysis from Mysteel, more than 60 percent of China's methanol imports and roughly 56 percent of its sulfur imports historically came from the Middle East — flows that have now largely collapsed. Around 1.2 million barrels per day of global naphtha exports have also been disrupted.
The Soufan Center noted in March that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had cascading effects on critical mineral processing and energy-dependent supply chains, intensifying the technological rivalry between the US and China. Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy assessed that while China's crude oil stockpiles could sustain it through a multi-month disruption, chemical feedstocks remained a more acute pressure point.
Geopolitical Dimensions
The record ethane purchases come at a politically charged moment. China waived its 125 percent tariff on US ethane imports last year after the product became a flash point during the US-China trade war. China has roughly 4 million tonnes per year of ethane-based ethylene capacity, nearly all independently owned, requiring steady US supply.
Russia has also sought to position itself as an alternative energy supplier to China. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier this month that Moscow was "certainly capable of bridging the resource gap" facing Beijing, according to Interfax. Meanwhile, China's increased ethane purchases come ahead of a planned mid-May visit by President Donald Trump to Beijing, adding a diplomatic wrinkle to an already complex trade relationship.
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